Is rooftop solar still worth it in Pakistan in 2026?

Pakistan imported 16.9 GW of solar panels in 2025, and estimates of installed rooftop and distributed solar run past 20 GW. Imports fell sharply in 2026 as the net-billing rules arrived. If you are deciding whether to install, expand, or add storage, the key change is simple: exported electricity is now cheap, self-used electricity is still expensive.

What one solar unit is worth

Under net billing, using a unit yourself is worth about five times as much as exporting it. That reshapes every decision below.

Size for your daytime use

Under net metering, a big system that exported a lot in the day could still cancel much of the night’s use. Under net billing it can’t: night imports are charged at the full tariff and exports earn Rs 8.13. The 2026 rules also cap new systems at your sanctioned load.

A practical approach: take your daytime consumption (inverter apps show it, or use summer bills), and size the array to cover it with some margin for cloudy and winter days. Extra panels beyond that mostly produce cheap exports.

Shift loads into the sun

Every load moved from evening to daytime turns an Rs 8 export into an Rs 41–55 saving. Pumps, washing, ironing, water heating, EV charging and pre-cooling rooms are the easiest. See peak hours for the windows to avoid.

When a battery makes sense

A battery stores a daytime unit that would have been exported for about Rs 8 and uses it in the evening instead of a peak unit costing about Rs 55. The gross value is roughly Rs 47 per kWh cycled. To judge a quote:

Lifetime cost per kWh = battery price ÷ (usable kWh × lifetime cycles)
Worth it if this is well below about Rs 47
(allow for inverter losses of about 10% and battery ageing)

Batteries also cover load-shedding, which many households value as much as the savings. For households still on pre-2026 net metering, the gap is smaller (peak Rs 55 against a Rs 25.32 surplus credit), so batteries pay back more slowly.

Costs that solar won’t remove

• Fixed charge: Rs 675 per kW on half your sanctioned load or MDI, whichever is higher, for time-of-use connections. It is billed while you are connected.
• Fuel and quarterly adjustments on the units you still buy.
• GST, and income tax if you are a non-filer with a bill of Rs 25,000 or more.

Details in fixed charges, FPA and taxes.

A rough payback check

1. Estimate the system’s yearly generation (in Pakistan, often about 1,300–1,600 units per kW per year, depending on location, tilt, dust and shading).
2. Split it into units you’ll use yourself and units you’ll export.
3. Value self-used units at your tariff plus tax, and exports at the buyback rate.
4. Divide the system’s installed cost by that yearly value.

PIDE’s May 2026 analysis put payback for import-reliant systems under net billing at about 7–9 years. A home that uses most of its own generation will do noticeably better.

Already have solar? Measure first

Your bill already tells you your exports, your peak imports and your self-consumption (if you know your generation). Add a few months of bills to Solar Bill and it shows what your panels saved, your self-consumption ratio and how much shifting evening load would save, before you spend on more panels or a battery.

Sources: NEPRA CY2026 power purchase price decision (7 Jan 2026); NEPRA tariff decision (11 Feb 2026); PIDE, May 2026; The Friday Times, 7 Oct 2026; Profit, 19 Jun 2025.